A forecast nobody checks gets the same thing wrong every year.

Tidewell forecasts river and tide levels for 41 towns, three days ahead. After each flood, nobody had time to compare the forecast with what the water actually did, so the same errors came back the next season.

The Junior Forecasting Analyst closes that loop. You score every forecast against the gauges and against what people in each town saw, write up where the model was wrong, and help Kemi fix it before the next rains.

Climate adaptation
Statistics × Local knowledge
Full-time
Closes 8 Jan

Junior Forecasting Analyst

Tidewell · Lagos, hybrid · $40–50k · 22 people

Why this seat matters

“They said the water would reach the market. It stopped at the church, two streets short. Next time, half of us stayed home.”

Iyabo Oladele, cloth seller, Orioke

Is this you?

If two or more of these sound like you, you're worth talking to, whatever your CV says.

You've checked someone's numbers and found the mistake, politely.
A list of misses is a puzzle to you, not a chore.
You'd rather say how unsure a forecast is than pretend it's certain.
You want to learn hydrology from someone who's done it for years.

Where this role takes you

Tidewell's 2030 goal, and where the work is today

61%of forecasts within 20 cm of the peak

85%by 2028

Week 1

You read last season.

Go through every forecast from last July with Kemi and set it against the gauge records. Mark each one a hit, a miss or a false alarm, and note the towns the model gets wrong most.

With

212forecasts scored by hand

Meet the crew. There's a seat for you.

You?This seatJunior Forecasting Analyst

Kemi Ola · Hydrologist, your manager

“I'll show you how the model works, and where I think it's wrong. Your job is to prove me right or wrong with data.”

On a bad day: reruns last year's floods on her laptop.

A Monday after a flood

During flood season

08:30Pull the weekend gauge readings
10:00Score last week's forecasts
11:30Call two town reporters about where the water reached
13:00Team lunch from the place downstairs
14:30Model review with Kemi
16:30Send the Monday scorecard

What life is like

Fridays: Demo at 4pm, then jollof.
After each flood: A review of every miss, without blame.
Twice a year: A week in the field towns.
Learning: $1,500 a year for courses, books and conferences.

What you'll do

Score every forecast against gauge data and town reports
Build and run the weekly forecast scorecard
Write up where the model was wrong, town by town
Help retune the model before each flood season

What you bring

A degree or a year of work in statistics, geography or a related field
Python or R, enough to clean a messy dataset
Careful habits with data
Yoruba, Ijaw or Pidgin, to talk with town reporters

No forecasting experience. Kemi will teach you the model.

Your part in it

SCORE: every forecast against the gauges and against town reports.
CALL: town reporters to find out where the water actually reached.
PUBLISH: the scorecard to the alerts team every Monday.
LOG: where the model was wrong, town by town.
RETUNE: the model with Kemi before each flood season.

What success looks like

DAY 30: you’ve scored all 212 of last July’s forecasts by hand with Kemi.
DAY 60: Segun has built the tables, and a draft scorecard runs on last season’s data.
DAY 90: each forecast is scored within a day, and the scorecard goes out every Monday.

What you’ll need

A degree or a year of work in statistics, geography or similar
Python or R, enough to clean a messy dataset
Careful habits with data

Nice to have, not required

Any forecasting or hydrology. Kemi will teach you the model.

Where you’ll work

OFFICE: Lagos (Yaba), Monday and one other day. The scorecard goes out from here.
REMOTE: The other three days, from anywhere in Nigeria.
FIELD: A week in the field towns twice a year. Travel and lodging paid.
HOURS: West Africa Time. Core hours 10:00–15:00.
JUN–SEP: Flood season. Every flood is scored within a day of the peak.

Languages

Language	Need	Why
English	Required	Team language, and the language of the scorecard.
Yoruba	One of these	Town reporters in 24 of the 41 towns.
Pidgin	One of these	Understood in every town, and on most reporter calls.
Ijaw	One of these	Town reporters in the 9 Delta towns.

The essentials

Junior Forecasting Analyst · Tidewell

Salary: $40–50k
Where: Lagos, 2 days in office
Leave: 30 days + December
Learning: $1,500 a year

How you'll interview · about 2 weeks

1 · Chat with Kemi
2 · Score ten old forecasts (paid)
3 · Meet the crew
4 · Offer within a week

Your first stop

Last July's forecasts, with Kemi

Not ready to apply? Talk to Kemi for 15 minutes.

No CV needed. Ask about the work, the people, or what a hard week looks like.